We seek to derive and validate a clinically useful risk score for patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 to aide clinicians in the safe discharge of patients.
We a-priori plan the following analysis: 1. Derivation and Retrospective Validation. - Select all adult patients with a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 beginning March 1, 2020 until approximately 1000 patients are included. - Use 75% of this cohort to develop a simple risk-score that prognosticates a patient's suitability for discharge (no supplemental oxygen, no intensive care unit, and no death). Use multivariable logistic regression with forward selection informed by clinical judgement to choose variables a priori that emphasizes readily available data and easy calculation for use at the point of care. - Use 25% of this cohort to retrospectively validate the risk-score. 2. Prospective Validation. - Select all adult patients with a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 as soon as the derivation cohort in step 1 is assembled. Include approximately 250 patients. - Use this sample to prospectively validate the risk-score developed in part 1.
Inclusion Criteria:
- Positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
- Age 18 and older
Exclusion Criteria:
- None
Brigham and Women's Hospital
Boston, Massachusetts, 02115
Investigator: David M Levine, MD MPH MA
Contact: 617-732-7063
Investigator: David M Levine, MD MPH MA
David Levine, MD
617-732-7063
dmlevine@bwh.harvard.edu